Saturday, November 20, 2004

Accidental prime minister

Now thats an interesting title, 'Accidental Prime minister'. In fact, every time I think about my roots, family, life in India etc, I am quite humbled over and again to remember than its Prime minister is not a rich and cunning businessman or a military general, but a technocrat with an Oxford degree and absolutely-no-interest-in-power attitude to his credit.

Internationally, India and its new found wealth of highly skilled, English speaking and highly motivated work force may not be making much noise outside the evening pub sessions of average western middleclass, its definitely not doing what Indian administration was hoping it would, well, not at least.

The US administration is rarely commended for making correct decisions. With out breaking the tradition they have, over and again, committed the same mistakes, which later grow larger and hunt them back. Recently, post 9-11, the US administration had a choice to make, a tough choice of course, to base their anti-Taliban operations in India or Pakistan.

The USA and Pakistan has a long history or working together. When Russians invaded Afghanistan (reasons being Central Asian oil reserves, Illegal drugs trade, Islamic militancy, and increasing American presence in the region), American administration sought the support of Pakistan to train and fund Afghani rebels to fight the Russians out of Afghanistan. With the weakest possible constitution and a military dictator, Pakistan was an easy ally for America, than India. Also in the past, when India and Pakistan locked horns over various border disputes, Pakistan used its influence and American gun ships were repositioned in Bay of Bengal, ready for strike against India. Afraid of its own safety from one of the super powers, India had no choice but to join the Russians, in return India also won much-required arms and equipment, which kept South East Asia stable for a while more.

However, cold war is not history, the mighty post perestroika USSR is a group of countries and is no more a threat to USA or neither a great ally to India. China has grown ever more powerful and have started looking down at India.

Indian administration was deservedly worried when the American trained Taliban militia drove Russians out of Afghanistan, and established an Islamic state. The Taliban training camps now started churning out Kashmiri militants, now even more powerfully since they have a model Islamic state to look up to – Afghanistan.

Plot thickens when Al-Quida invents itself a haven in Afghanistan. Kabul had everything any terrorist organisation would ever want – plenty of strong and trained men who would do anything for Islam and food, already isolated by rest of the world, their actions will get little attention from rest of the world. Pakistan’s northern fundamentalist tribes provided them a buffer, from what is already weakened Pakistan administration, which was going through series of military coupes. Ten years of insurgency and cross-border terrorism to Indian side of Kashmir, ethnic cleansing to wipe out every single Hindu pundits off the valley, and setting up an Islamic state-like system was all to follow.

There are no words to explain the events of 9-11, and the America was waking up to the fact that their strategies are not always working – that they knowingly or inadvertently developed Taliban, and now that they have grown out of America’s control. Now with the support of the every single nation in this planet, there was America’s second chance to make a right decision. To go with India or Pakistan?

Pakistan on one hand is controlled by Prez. Parvez Musharaf, who came to power by a military coupe, displacing a democratically elected government, and full of anti-west, extremist-Islamic fundamentalists and on the other hand is India, the world’s largest democracy on its 50th successful year, a secular state, headed by a technocrat as its president, developing itself and posting double growth figures and being a model to other developing nations.

Mr. Bush chose to go with Pakistan. Rest is history.

No comments: